Extending the diabetic retinopathy screening intervals in Singapore: methodology and preliminary findings of a cohort study.

BACKGROUND: The Diabetic Retinopathy Extended Screening Study (DRESS) aims to develop and validate a new DR/diabetic macular edema (DME) risk stratification model in patients with Type 2 diabetes (DM) to identify low-risk groups who can be safely assigned to biennial or triennial screening intervals. We describe the study methodology, participants' baseline characteristics, and preliminary DR progression rates at the first annual follow-up. METHODS: DRESS is a 3-year ongoing longitudinal study of patients with T2DM and no or mild non-proliferative DR (NPDR, non-referable) who underwent teleophthalmic screening under the Singapore integrated Diabetic Retinopathy Programme (SiDRP) at four SingHealth Polyclinics. Patients with referable DR/DME (> mild NPDR) or ungradable fundus images were excluded. Sociodemographic, lifestyle, medical and clinical information was obtained from medical records and interviewer-administered questionnaires at baseline. These data are extracted from medical records at 12, 24 and 36 months post-enrollment. Baseline descriptive characteristics stratified by DR severity at baseline and rates of progression to referable DR at 12-month follow-up were calculated. RESULTS: Of 5,840 eligible patients, 78.3% (n = 4,570, median [interquartile range [IQR] age 61.0 [55-67] years; 54.7% male; 68.0% Chinese) completed the baseline assessment. At baseline, 97.4% and 2.6% had none and mild NPDR (worse eye), respectively. Most participants had hypertension (79.2%) and dyslipidemia (92.8%); and almost half were obese (43.4%, BMI ≥ 27.5 kg/m2). Participants without DR (vs mild DR) reported shorter DM duration, and had lower haemoglobin A1c, triglycerides and urine albumin/creatinine ratio (all p < 0.05). To date, we have extracted 41.8% (n = 1909) of the 12-month follow-up data. Of these, 99.7% (n = 1,904) did not progress to referable DR. Those who progressed to referable DR status (0.3%) had no DR at baseline. CONCLUSIONS: In our prospective study of patients with T2DM and non-referable DR attending polyclinics, we found extremely low annual DR progression rates. These preliminary results suggest that extending screening intervals beyond 12 months may be viable and safe for most participants, although our 3-year follow up data are needed to substantiate this claim and develop the risk stratification model to identify low-risk patients with T2DM who can be assigned biennial or triennial screening intervals.

A framework for testing non-inferiority in a three-arm, sequential, multiple assignment randomized trial.

Sequential multiple assignment randomized trial design is becoming increasingly used in the field of precision medicine. This design allows comparisons of sequences of adaptive interventions tailored to the individual patient. Superiority testing is usually the initial goal in order to determine which embedded adaptive intervention yields the best primary outcome on average. When direct superiority is not evident, yet an adaptive intervention poses other benefits, then non-inferiority testing is warranted. Non-inferiority testing in the sequential multiple assignment randomized trial setup is rather new and involves the specification of non-inferiority margin and other important assumptions that are often unverifiable internally. These challenges are not specific to sequential multiple assignment randomized trial and apply to two-arm non-inferiority trials that do not include a standard-of-care (or placebo) arm. To address some of these challenges, three-arm non-inferiority trials that include the standard-of-care arm are proposed. However, methods developed so far for three-arm non-inferiority trials are not sequential multiple assignment randomized trial-specific. This is because apart from embedded adaptive interventions, sequential multiple assignment randomized trial typically does not include a third standard-of-care arm. In this article, we consider a three-arm sequential multiple assignment randomized trial from an National Institutes of Health-funded study of symptom management strategies among people undergoing cancer treatment. Motivated by that example, we propose a novel data analytic method for non-inferiority testing in the framework of three-arm sequential multiple assignment randomized trial for the first time. Sample size and power considerations are discussed through extensive simulation studies to elucidate our method.

Incorporating participants' welfare into sequential multiple assignment randomized trials.

Dynamic treatment regimes (DTRs) are sequences of decision rules that recommend treatments based on patients' time-varying clinical conditions. The sequential, multiple assignment, randomized trial (SMART) is an experimental design that can provide high-quality evidence for constructing optimal DTRs. In a conventional SMART, participants are randomized to available treatments at multiple stages with balanced randomization probabilities. Despite its relative simplicity of implementation and desirable performance in comparing embedded DTRs, the conventional SMART faces inevitable ethical issues, including assigning many participants to the empirically inferior treatment or the treatment they dislike, which might slow down the recruitment procedure and lead to higher attrition rates, ultimately leading to poor internal and external validities of the trial results. In this context, we propose a SMART under the Experiment-as-Market framework (SMART-EXAM), a novel SMART design that holds the potential to improve participants' welfare by incorporating their preferences and predicted treatment effects into the randomization procedure. We describe the steps of conducting a SMART-EXAM and evaluate its performance compared to the conventional SMART. The results indicate that the SMART-EXAM can improve the welfare of the participants enrolled in the trial, while also achieving a desirable ability to construct an optimal DTR when the experimental parameters are suitably specified. We finally illustrate the practical potential of the SMART-EXAM design using data from a SMART for children with attention-deficit/hyperactivity disorder.

The effect of cognitive behavioral therapy text messages on mood: A micro-randomized trial.

The StayWell at Home intervention, a 60-day text-messaging program based on Cognitive Behavioral Therapy (CBT) principles, was developed to help adults cope with the adverse effects of the global pandemic. Participants in StayWell at Home were found to show reduced depressive and anxiety symptoms after participation. However, it remains unclear whether the intervention improved mood and which intervention components were most effective at improving user mood during the pandemic. Thus, utilizing a micro-randomized trial (MRT) design, we examined two intervention components to inform the mechanisms of action that improve mood: 1) text messages delivering CBT-informed coping strategies (i.e., behavioral activation, other coping skills, or social support); 2) time at which messages were sent. Data from two independent trials of StayWell are included in this paper. The first trial included 303 adults aged 18 or older, and the second included 266 adults aged 18 or older. Participants were recruited via online platforms (e.g., Facebook ads) and partnerships with community-based agencies aiming to reach diverse populations, including low-income individuals and people of color. The results of this paper indicate that participating in the program improved and sustained self-reported mood ratings among participants. We did not find significant differences between the type of message delivered and mood ratings. On the other hand, the results from Phase 1 indicated that delivering any type of message in the 3 pm-6 pm time window improved mood significantly over sending a message in the 9 am-12 pm time window. The StayWell at Home program increases in mood ratings appeared more pronounced during the first two to three weeks of the intervention and were maintained for the remainder of the study period. The current paper provides evidence that low-burden text-message interventions may effectively address behavioral health concerns among diverse communities.

Testing the Effects of App-Based Motivational Messages on Physical Activity and Resting Heart Rate Through Smartphone App Compliance in Patients With Vulnerable Coronary Artery Plaques: Protocol for a Microrandomized Trial.

BACKGROUND: Achieving the weekly physical activity recommendations of at least 150-300 minutes of moderate-intensity or 75-150 minutes of vigorous-intensity aerobic exercise is important for reducing cardiometabolic risk, but evidence shows that most people struggle to meet these goals, particularly in the mid to long term. OBJECTIVE: The Messages Improving Resting Heart Health (MIRTH) study aims to determine if (1) sending daily motivational messages through a research app is effective in improving motivation and in promoting adherence to physical activity recommendations in men and women with coronary heart disease randomized to a 12-month intensive lifestyle intervention, and (2) the time of the day when the message is delivered impacts compliance with exercise training. METHODS: We will conduct a single-center, microrandomized trial. Participants will be randomized daily to either receive or not receive motivational messages over two 90-day periods at the beginning (phase 1: months 4-6) and at the end (phase 2: months 10-12) of the Lifestyle Vulnerable Plaque Study. Wrist-worn devices (Fitbit Inspire 2) and Bluetooth pairing with smartphones will be used to passively collect data for proximal (ie, physical activity duration, steps walked, and heart rate within 180 minutes of receiving messages) and distal (ie, change values for resting heart rate and total steps walked within and across both phases 1 and 2 of the trial) outcomes. Participants will be recruited from a large academic cardiology office practice (Central Sydney Cardiology) and the Royal Prince Alfred Hospital Departments of Cardiology and Radiology. All clinical investigations will be undertaken at the Charles Perkins Centre Royal Prince Alfred clinic. Individuals aged 18-80 years (n=58) with stable coronary heart disease who have low attenuation plaques based on a coronary computed tomography angiography within the past 3 months and have been randomized to an intensive lifestyle intervention program will be included in MIRTH. RESULTS: The Lifestyle Vulnerable Plaque Study was funded in 2020 and started enrolling participants in February 2022. Recruitment for MIRTH commenced in November 2022. As of September 2023, 2 participants were enrolled in the MIRTH study and provided baseline data. CONCLUSIONS: This MIRTH microrandomized trial will represent the single most detailed and integrated analysis of the effects of a comprehensive lifestyle intervention delivered through a customized mobile health app on smart devices on time-based motivational messaging for patients with coronary heart disease. This study will also help inform future studies optimizing for just-in-time adaptive interventions. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12622000731796; https://www.anzctr.org.au/Trial/Registration/TrialReview.aspx?id=382861. INTERNATIONAL REGISTERED REPORT IDENTIFIER (IRRID): DERR1-10.2196/46082.

iVY: protocol for a randomised clinical trial to test the effect of a technology-based intervention to improve virological suppression among young adults with HIV in the USA.

INTRODUCTION: Young adults with HIV (YWH) experience worse clinical outcomes than adults and have high rates of substance use (SU) and mental illness that impact their engagement in care and adherence to antiretroviral therapy (ART). The intervention for Virologic Suppression in Youth (iVY) aims to address treatment engagement/adherence, mental health (MH) and SU in a tailored manner using a differentiated care approach that is youth friendly. Findings will provide information about the impact of iVY on HIV virological suppression, MH and SU among YWH who are disproportionately impacted by HIV and at elevated risk for poor health outcomes. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The iVY study will test the effect of a technology-based intervention with differing levels of resource requirements (ie, financial and personnel time) in a randomised clinical trial with an adaptive treatment strategy among 200 YWH (18-29 years old). The primary outcome is HIV virological suppression measured via dried blood spot. This piloted and protocolised intervention combines: (1) brief weekly sessions with a counsellor via a video-chat platform (video-counselling) to discuss MH, SU, HIV care engagement/adherence and other barriers to care; and (2) a mobile health app to address barriers such as ART forgetfulness, and social isolation. iVY has the potential to address important, distinct and changing barriers to HIV care engagement (eg, MH, SU) to increase virological suppression among YWH at elevated risk for poor health outcomes. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: This study and its protocols have been approved by the University of California, San Francisco Institutional Review Board. Study staff will work with a Youth Advisory Panel to disseminate results to YWH, participants and the academic community. TRIAL REGISTRATION NUMBER: NCT05877729.

FedScore: A privacy-preserving framework for federated scoring system development.

OBJECTIVE: We propose FedScore, a privacy-preserving federated learning framework for scoring system generation across multiple sites to facilitate cross-institutional collaborations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: The FedScore framework includes five modules: federated variable ranking, federated variable transformation, federated score derivation, federated model selection and federated model evaluation. To illustrate usage and assess FedScore's performance, we built a hypothetical global scoring system for mortality prediction within 30 days after a visit to an emergency department using 10 simulated sites divided from a tertiary hospital in Singapore. We employed a pre-existing score generator to construct 10 local scoring systems independently at each site and we also developed a scoring system using centralized data for comparison. RESULTS: We compared the acquired FedScore model's performance with that of other scoring models using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. The FedScore model achieved an average area under the curve (AUC) value of 0.763 across all sites, with a standard deviation (SD) of 0.020. We also calculated the average AUC values and SDs for each local model, and the FedScore model showed promising accuracy and stability with a high average AUC value which was closest to the one of the pooled model and SD which was lower than that of most local models. CONCLUSION: This study demonstrates that FedScore is a privacy-preserving scoring system generator with potentially good generalizability.

COVID-19 may have increased global support for universal health coverage: multi-country observational study.

Introduction: The multiple risks generated by the COVID-19 pandemic intensified the debate about healthcare access and coverage. Whether the burden of disease caused by the coronavirus outbreak changed public opinion about healthcare provision remains unclear. In this study, it was specifically examined if the pandemic changed support for governmental intervention in healthcare as a proxy to support for universal health coverage (UHC). It also examined which psychological factors related to the socioeconomic interdependence exposed by the pandemic may be associated with a potential change. Methods: Online survey data was collected over 18 months (from March 2020 to August 2021) across 73 countries, containing various social attitudes and risk perceptions related to COVID-19. This was a convenience sample composed of voluntary participants (N = 3,176; age 18 years and above). Results: The results show that support for government intervention in healthcare increased across geographical regions, age groups, and gender groups (an average increase of 39%), more than the support for government intervention in other social welfare issues. Factors related to socioeconomic interdependence predicted increased support for government intervention in healthcare, namely, social solidarity (ß = 0.14, p < 0.0001), and risk to economic livelihood (ß = 0.09, p < 0.0001). Trust in the government to deal with COVID-19 decreased over time, and this negative trajectory predicted a demand for better future government intervention in healthcare (ß = -0.10, p = 0.0003). Conclusion: The COVID-19 pandemic may have been a potential turning point in the global public support for UHC, as evidenced by a higher level of consensus that governments should be guarantors of healthcare.

Federated and distributed learning applications for electronic health records and structured medical data: a scoping review.

OBJECTIVES: Federated learning (FL) has gained popularity in clinical research in recent years to facilitate privacy-preserving collaboration. Structured data, one of the most prevalent forms of clinical data, has experienced significant growth in volume concurrently, notably with the widespread adoption of electronic health records in clinical practice. This review examines FL applications on structured medical data, identifies contemporary limitations, and discusses potential innovations. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We searched 5 databases, SCOPUS, MEDLINE, Web of Science, Embase, and CINAHL, to identify articles that applied FL to structured medical data and reported results following the PRISMA guidelines. Each selected publication was evaluated from 3 primary perspectives, including data quality, modeling strategies, and FL frameworks. RESULTS: Out of the 1193 papers screened, 34 met the inclusion criteria, with each article consisting of one or more studies that used FL to handle structured clinical/medical data. Of these, 24 utilized data acquired from electronic health records, with clinical predictions and association studies being the most common clinical research tasks that FL was applied to. Only one article exclusively explored the vertical FL setting, while the remaining 33 explored the horizontal FL setting, with only 14 discussing comparisons between single-site (local) and FL (global) analysis. CONCLUSIONS: The existing FL applications on structured medical data lack sufficient evaluations of clinically meaningful benefits, particularly when compared to single-site analyses. Therefore, it is crucial for future FL applications to prioritize clinical motivations and develop designs and methodologies that can effectively support and aid clinical practice and research.

A flexible micro-randomized trial design and sample size considerations.

Technological advancements have made it possible to deliver mobile health interventions to individuals. A novel framework that has emerged from such advancements is the just-in-time adaptive intervention, which aims to suggest the right support to the individuals when their needs arise. The micro-randomized trial design has been proposed recently to test the proximal effects of the components of these just-in-time adaptive interventions. However, the extant micro-randomized trial framework only considers components with a fixed number of categories added at the beginning of the study. We propose a more flexible micro-randomized trial design which allows addition of more categories to the components during the study. Note that the number and timing of the categories added during the study need to be fixed initially. The proposed design is motivated by collaboration on the Diabetes and Mental Health Adaptive Notification Tracking and Evaluation study, which learns to deliver effective text messages to encourage physical activity among patients with diabetes and depression. We developed a new test statistic and the corresponding sample size calculator for the flexible micro-randomized trial using an approach similar to the generalized estimating equation for longitudinal data. Simulation studies were conducted to evaluate the sample size calculators and an R shiny application for the calculators was developed.

Handling missing values in healthcare data: A systematic review of deep learning-based imputation techniques.

OBJECTIVE: The proper handling of missing values is critical to delivering reliable estimates and decisions, especially in high-stakes fields such as clinical research. In response to the increasing diversity and complexity of data, many researchers have developed deep learning (DL)-based imputation techniques. We conducted a systematic review to evaluate the use of these techniques, with a particular focus on the types of data, intending to assist healthcare researchers from various disciplines in dealing with missing data. MATERIALS AND METHODS: We searched five databases (MEDLINE, Web of Science, Embase, CINAHL, and Scopus) for articles published prior to February 8, 2023 that described the use of DL-based models for imputation. We examined selected articles from four perspectives: data types, model backbones (i.e., main architectures), imputation strategies, and comparisons with non-DL-based methods. Based on data types, we created an evidence map to illustrate the adoption of DL models. RESULTS: Out of 1822 articles, a total of 111 were included, of which tabular static data (29%, 32/111) and temporal data (40%, 44/111) were the most frequently investigated. Our findings revealed a discernible pattern in the choice of model backbones and data types, for example, the dominance of autoencoder and recurrent neural networks for tabular temporal data. The discrepancy in imputation strategy usage among data types was also observed. The "integrated" imputation strategy, which solves the imputation task simultaneously with downstream tasks, was most popular for tabular temporal data (52%, 23/44) and multi-modal data (56%, 5/9). Moreover, DL-based imputation methods yielded a higher level of imputation accuracy than non-DL methods in most studies. CONCLUSION: The DL-based imputation models are a family of techniques, with diverse network structures. Their designation in healthcare is usually tailored to data types with different characteristics. Although DL-based imputation models may not be superior to conventional approaches across all datasets, it is highly possible for them to achieve satisfactory results for a particular data type or dataset. There are, however, still issues with regard to portability, interpretability, and fairness associated with current DL-based imputation models.

Sample size estimation for comparing dynamic treatment regimens in a SMART: A Monte Carlo-based approach and case study with longitudinal overdispersed count outcomes.

Dynamic treatment regimens (DTRs), also known as treatment algorithms or adaptive interventions, play an increasingly important role in many health domains. DTRs are motivated to address the unique and changing needs of individuals by delivering the type of treatment needed, when needed, while minimizing unnecessary treatment. Practically, a DTR is a sequence of decision rules that specify, for each of several points in time, how available information about the individual's status and progress should be used in practice to decide which treatment (e.g. type or intensity) to deliver. The sequential multiple assignment randomized trial (SMART) is an experimental design widely used to empirically inform the development of DTRs. Sample size planning resources for SMARTs have been developed for continuous, binary, and survival outcomes. However, an important gap exists in sample size estimation methodology for SMARTs with longitudinal count outcomes. Furthermore, in many health domains, count data are overdispersed-having variance greater than their mean. We propose a Monte Carlo-based approach to sample size estimation applicable to many types of longitudinal outcomes and provide a case study with longitudinal overdispersed count outcomes. A SMART for engaging alcohol and cocaine-dependent patients in treatment is used as motivation.

Participant Engagement in Microrandomized Trials of mHealth Interventions: Scoping Review.

BACKGROUND: Microrandomized trials (MRTs) have emerged as the gold standard for the development and evaluation of multicomponent, adaptive mobile health (mHealth) interventions. However, not much is known about the state of participant engagement measurement in MRTs of mHealth interventions. OBJECTIVE: In this scoping review, we aimed to quantify the proportion of existing or planned MRTs of mHealth interventions to date that have assessed (or have planned to assess) engagement. In addition, for the trials that have explicitly assessed (or have planned to assess) engagement, we aimed to investigate how engagement has been operationalized and to identify the factors that have been studied as determinants of engagement in MRTs of mHealth interventions. METHODS: We conducted a broad search for MRTs of mHealth interventions in 5 databases and manually searched preprint servers and trial registries. Study characteristics of each included evidence source were extracted. We coded and categorized these data to identify how engagement has been operationalized and which determinants, moderators, and covariates have been assessed in existing MRTs. RESULTS: Our database and manual search yielded 22 eligible evidence sources. Most of these studies (14/22, 64%) were designed to evaluate the effects of intervention components. The median sample size of the included MRTs was 110.5. At least 1 explicit measure of engagement was included in 91% (20/22) of the included MRTs. We found that objective measures such as system usage data (16/20, 80%) and sensor data (7/20, 35%) are the most common methods of measuring engagement. All studies included at least 1 measure of the physical facet of engagement, but the affective and cognitive facets of engagement have largely been neglected (only measured by 1 study each). Most studies measured engagement with the mHealth intervention (Little e) and not with the health behavior of interest (Big E). Only 6 (30%) of the 20 studies that measured engagement assessed the determinants of engagement in MRTs of mHealth interventions; notification-related variables were the most common determinants of engagement assessed (4/6, 67% studies). Of the 6 studies, 3 (50%) examined the moderators of participant engagement-2 studies investigated time-related moderators exclusively, and 1 study planned to investigate a comprehensive set of physiological and psychosocial moderators in addition to time-related moderators. CONCLUSIONS: Although the measurement of participant engagement in MRTs of mHealth interventions is prevalent, there is a need for future trials to diversify the measurement of engagement. There is also a need for researchers to address the lack of attention to how engagement is determined and moderated. We hope that by mapping the state of engagement measurement in existing MRTs of mHealth interventions, this review will encourage researchers to pay more attention to these issues when planning for engagement measurement in future trials.

A universal AutoScore framework to develop interpretable scoring systems for predicting common types of clinical outcomes.

The AutoScore framework can automatically generate data-driven clinical scores in various clinical applications. Here, we present a protocol for developing clinical scoring systems for binary, survival, and ordinal outcomes using the open-source AutoScore package. We describe steps for package installation, detailed data processing and checking, and variable ranking. We then explain how to iterate through steps for variable selection, score generation, fine-tuning, and evaluation to generate understandable and explainable scoring systems using data-driven evidence and clinical knowledge. For complete details on the use and execution of this protocol, please refer to Xie et al. (2020),1 Xie et al. (2022)2, Saffari et al. (2022)3 and the online tutorial https://nliulab.github.io/AutoScore/.

A novel approach to assess dynamic treatment regimes embedded in a SMART with an ordinal outcome.

Sequential multiple assignment randomized trials (SMARTs) are used to construct data-driven optimal intervention strategies for subjects based on their intervention and covariate histories in different branches of health and behavioral sciences where a sequence of interventions is given to a participant. Sequential intervention strategies are often called dynamic treatment regimes (DTR). In the existing literature, the majority of the analysis methodologies for SMART data assume a continuous primary outcome. However, ordinal outcomes are also quite common in clinical practice. In this work, first, we introduce the notion of generalized odds ratio ( G O R $$ GOR $$ ) to compare two DTRs embedded in a SMART with an ordinal outcome and discuss some combinatorial properties of this measure. Next, we propose a likelihood-based approach to estimate G O R $$ GOR $$ from SMART data, and derive the asymptotic properties of its estimate. We discuss alternative ways to estimate G O R $$ GOR $$ using concordant-discordant pairs and two-sample U $$ U $$ -statistic. We derive the required sample size formula for designing SMARTs with ordinal outcomes based on G O R $$ GOR $$ . A simulation study shows the performance of the estimated G O R $$ GOR $$ in terms of the estimated power corresponding to the derived sample size. The methodology is applied to analyze data from the SMART+ study, conducted in the UK, to improve carbohydrate periodization behavior in athletes using a menu planner mobile application, Hexis Performance. A freely available Shiny web app using R is provided to make the proposed methodology accessible to other researchers and practitioners.

The Sequential Multiple Assignment Randomized Trial for Controlling Infectious Diseases: A Review of Recent Developments.

Infectious diseases have posed severe threats to public health across the world. Effective prevention and control of infectious diseases in the long term requires adapting interventions based on epidemiological evidence. The sequential multiple assignment randomized trial (SMART) is a multistage randomized trial that can provide valid evidence of when and how to adapt interventions for controlling infectious diseases based on evolving epidemiological evidence. We review recent developments in SMARTs to bring wider attention to the potential benefits of employing SMARTs in constructing effective adaptive interventions for controlling infectious diseases and other threats to public health. We discuss 2 example SMARTs for infectious diseases and summarize recent developments in SMARTs from the varied aspects of design, analysis, cost, and ethics. Public health investigators are encouraged to familiarize themselves with the related materials we discuss and collaborate with experts in SMARTs to translate the methodological developments into preeminent public health research. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(1):49-59. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.307135).

Microrandomized Trials: Developing Just-in-Time Adaptive Interventions for Better Public Health.

Just-in-time adaptive interventions (JITAIs) represent an intervention design that adapts the provision and type of support over time to an individual's changing status and contexts, intending to deliver the right support on the right occasion. As a novel strategy for delivering mobile health interventions, JITAIs have the potential to improve access to quality care in underserved communities and, thus, alleviate health disparities, a significant public health concern. Valid experimental designs and analysis methods are required to inform the development of JITAIs. Here, we briefly review the cutting-edge design of microrandomized trials (MRTs), covering both the classical MRT design and its outcome-adaptive counterpart. Associated statistical challenges related to the design and analysis of MRTs are also discussed. Two case studies are provided to illustrate the aforementioned concepts and designs throughout the article. We hope our work leads to better design and application of JITAIs, advancing public health research and practice. (Am J Public Health. 2023;113(1):60-69. https://doi.org/10.2105/AJPH.2022.307150).

A distribution-free smoothed combination method to improve discrimination accuracy in multi-category classification.

Results from multiple diagnostic tests are combined in many ways to improve the overall diagnostic accuracy. For binary classification, maximization of the empirical estimate of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve has widely been used to produce an optimal linear combination of multiple biomarkers. However, in the presence of a large number of biomarkers, this method proves to be computationally expensive and difficult to implement since it involves maximization of a discontinuous, non-smooth function for which gradient-based methods cannot be used directly. The complexity of this problem further increases when the classification problem becomes multi-category. In this article, we develop a linear combination method that maximizes a smooth approximation of the empirical Hyper-volume Under Manifolds for the multi-category outcome. We approximate HUM by replacing the indicator function with the sigmoid function and normal cumulative distribution function. With such smooth approximations, efficient gradient-based algorithms are employed to obtain better solutions with less computing time. We show that under some regularity conditions, the proposed method yields consistent estimates of the coefficient parameters. We derive the asymptotic normality of the coefficient estimates. A simulation study is performed to study the effectiveness of our proposed method as compared to other existing methods. The method is illustrated using two real medical data sets.

Protocol for a multi-site randomized controlled trial of a stepped-care intervention for emergency department patients with panic-related anxiety.

BACKGROUND: Approximately 40% of Emergency Department (ED) patients with chest pain meet diagnostic criteria for panic-related anxiety, but only 1-2% are correctly diagnosed and appropriately managed in the ED. A stepped-care model, which focuses on providing evidence-based interventions in a resource-efficient manner, is the state-of-the art for treating panic disorder patients in medical settings such as primary care. Stepped-care has yet to be tested in the ED setting, which is the first point of contact with the healthcare system for most patients with panic symptoms. METHODS: This multi-site randomized controlled trial (RCT) aims to evaluate the clinical, patient-centred, and economic effectiveness of a stepped-care intervention in a sample of 212 patients with panic-related anxiety presenting to the ED of Singapore's largest public healthcare group. Participants will be randomly assigned to either: 1) an enhanced care arm consisting of a stepped-care intervention for panic-related anxiety; or 2) a control arm consisting of screening for panic attacks and panic disorder. Screening will be followed by baseline assessments and blocked randomization in a 1:1 ratio. Masked follow-up assessments will be conducted at 1, 3, 6, and 12 months. Clinical outcomes will be panic symptom severity and rates of panic disorder. Patient-centred outcomes will be health-related quality of life, daily functioning, psychiatric comorbidity, and health services utilization. Economic effectiveness outcomes will be the incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of the stepped-care intervention relative to screening alone. DISCUSSION: This trial will examine the impact of early intervention for patients with panic-related anxiety in the ED setting. The results will be used to propose a clinically-meaningful and cost-effective model of care for ED patients with panic-related anxiety. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ClinicalTrials.gov NCT03632356. Retrospectively registered 15 August 2018.

AutoScore-Ordinal: an interpretable machine learning framework for generating scoring models for ordinal outcomes.

BACKGROUND: Risk prediction models are useful tools in clinical decision-making which help with risk stratification and resource allocations and may lead to a better health care for patients. AutoScore is a machine learning-based automatic clinical score generator for binary outcomes. This study aims to expand the AutoScore framework to provide a tool for interpretable risk prediction for ordinal outcomes. METHODS: The AutoScore-Ordinal framework is generated using the same 6 modules of the original AutoScore algorithm including variable ranking, variable transformation, score derivation (from proportional odds models), model selection, score fine-tuning, and model evaluation. To illustrate the AutoScore-Ordinal performance, the method was conducted on electronic health records data from the emergency department at Singapore General Hospital over 2008 to 2017. The model was trained on 70% of the data, validated on 10% and tested on the remaining 20%. RESULTS: This study included 445,989 inpatient cases, where the distribution of the ordinal outcome was 80.7% alive without 30-day readmission, 12.5% alive with 30-day readmission, and 6.8% died inpatient or by day 30 post discharge. Two point-based risk prediction models were developed using two sets of 8 predictor variables identified by the flexible variable selection procedure. The two models indicated reasonably good performance measured by mean area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (0.758 and 0.793) and generalized c-index (0.737 and 0.760), which were comparable to alternative models. CONCLUSION: AutoScore-Ordinal provides an automated and easy-to-use framework for development and validation of risk prediction models for ordinal outcomes, which can systematically identify potential predictors from high-dimensional data.